• Australian home prices fell in May, down -0.11%, marking the first drop since the start of the pandemic. Prices continued to decline in Sydney (-0.29%) and in Melbourne (-0.27%), while prices in the ACT were down for the first time in three years.
• Monthly price growth has slowed almost everywhere across the country, with regional areas seeing a flat result in May. Many regional parts of the country, including WA (-0.43%) and QLD ( -0.19%), recorded falls.
• Adelaide and Brisbane were the strongest performing capitals over the month, with both markets bucking the trend and delivering continued growth in 2022.
• Over the past year, growth standouts among the capitals have been Brisbane and Adelaide, while regional counterparts in QLD, NSW and Tasmania have led growth outside the capitals.
Home price growth has slowed considerably in 2022 and is now falling nationally. This was the first national price fall since the start of the pandemic and follows the first interest rate rise in early May.
A clear two-speed housing market has emerged. Affordable, lifestyle regions of Brisbane, Adelaide, regional NSW and Tasmania continue to see solid growth, with flat or falling prices elsewhere.
While May housing market activity was disrupted by the federal election, price growth has been slowing for some time. Annual price growth has fallen from 24% only six months ago to 14% now.
Conditions have now shifted rapidly from 2021. This follows expectations of sharply higher interest rates in 2022, which will erode the affordability of existing prices.
The speed of official interest rate hikes and wages growth remain the key unknowns for price growth moving forward.
